After several months of positive returns, we saw a mixed picture in November. Nervousness in the financial markets has noticeably increased. This is partly due to the government shutdown, because of which much economic data (e.g., unemployment figures, inflation rates) was missing. These will now be published in December, and everyone is watching with anticipation!
Video from 03.12.2025
Economic growth: Are growth figures in the USA better than expected?
The shutdown in the USA has ended, but relevant data are still missing, including third-quarter growth figures. These will now be published on 23 December. However, using the available economic statistics and private data sources, it can be estimated that the US economy grew above average in the third quarter. Nevertheless, this growth is fragile, and leading indicators, especially in industry and construction, point to an impending slowdown.
Other industrialised nations recorded a rather weak third quarter. Economic performance was particularly disappointing in Switzerland and Japan, where it declined by 0.5 and 0.4 per cent respectively compared to the previous quarter. In the eurozone and the United Kingdom, growth was also not particularly positive, at plus 0.2 and 0.1 per cent respectively.
The Chinese economy also continues to weaken. Growth rates in industrial production and retail sales have fallen again, and capital investment is even declining. Overall, this indicates a further slowdown in global economic growth.
Inflation: Eagerly awaiting the US figures
The inflation data in the eurozone have recently shown little change, so the core rate for the currency area remained unchanged at 2.4 per cent, slightly above the ECB’s target of 2 per cent. For the USA, inflation data are still missing due to the shutdown.
Inflation also remains stubbornly high in the United Kingdom and Japan. In both countries, core inflation is still significantly above the targeted 2 per cent. The UK recorded a slight decline in the core rate from 3.5 to 3.4 per cent, while Japan saw a slight increase to 3 per cent.
Switzerland, on the other hand, remains at the lower end of its target range of 0 to 2 per cent, with a core rate of 0.5 per cent. Should core inflation fall further, pressure on the SNB to reintroduce negative interest rates would increase.
Monetary policy: The wait for interest rate cuts continues
The reduction of the balance sheet of the US central bank, the Fed, has slowed down once again. The Fed recently found itself in a difficult situation: due to the government shutdown, key data such as labour market and inflation figures were missing. Nevertheless, at the end of October, an interest rate decision had to be made based on the limited economic statistics available. The current key interest rate in the US is 4 per cent, and core inflation stands at 3 per cent. Thus, the real interest rate remains positive, which leaves room for possible interest rate cuts.
The total assets of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have recently increased marginally. At the SNB, the largest increase can be observed in gold reserves, which is not surprising given the rising gold price.
